Jon, do you think ITV a - want to bid, b - will bid?
I think ITV will bid, yes.
But I don't think they're be interested if they don't have the first picks.
I think the most likely outcome is ITV with at least the first pick and next two, with Sky or BT or Sky or BT with all the picks but the second where the BBC will get that pick.
Last edited by Jon on 14 June 2013 8:06pm - 2 times in total
I suppose that's the gamble you take with the FA cup. You can bid high, get first picks, but what if Liverpool, Man city, and Arsenal go out round 3, and by round 5 you've no attractive ties? You bid a lot for not a lot.
But, to be fair, that's not ITV (or any right holder) fault. But it's the risk you take. On the other hand, it's what makes the cup interesting.
I suppose that's the gamble you take with the FA cup. You can bid high, get first picks, but what if Liverpool, Man city, and Arsenal go out round 3, and by round 5 you've no attractive ties? You bid a lot for not a lot.
But, to be fair, that's not ITV (or any right holder) fault. But it's the risk you take. On the other hand, it's what makes the cup interesting.
But you'd hope, it would even out over the years of the contract.
I suppose in the case of all the potential bidders (I'm including Sky and Channel 5 in this), they will bid on the basis of what they want, but also, what they think it's worth. You're not going to bid £12 for something if you think you can get it for £10.
And the gamble applies to Sky; do they bid high to try and either force BT's hand or keep it off BT, or bid low on the assumption BT will not bid?
Well they won't bid on the assumption BT won't bid. I don't think the FA Cup is too crucial for Sky - they've still got more football than ever without it and the football free weekends seem to coincide with their Heineken Cup coverage quite nicely. I suspect they'll table a bid but based purely on value rather than must win.
You never know with the BBC - they're not in a position to bid agressively but I think they would like it back and frankly they need it. ITV will probably just judge it on value - in a way it wouldn't be a huge loss for ITV Sport, but without it ITV as a channel has nothing of worth at weekends at all. It may only be six or so weeks a year but it lifts their weekend daytime figures nicely in the weekends it does air.
One thought that has occurred to me, and Brekkie, you may be able to confirm this, if, and I stress if, ITV lost the FA cup, would I be right in thinking that would mean ITV had no domestic football rights for England? Another reason for ITV to bid, having covered some form of domestic English football for so long.
Of course, we don't know who's bidded for what, but I'd imagine that the FA would want at least two games per round FTA, and preferably just two broadcasters covering it. But, until the rights are announced, we won't know for sure.
On another topic, a friend of mine who's into showjumping has said that the new megabucks deal that Sky has with the premier league could threaten Sky's coverage of Hickstead and Horse of the year show. His thought is that Sky will have to pay for the Premier league deal by dropping lesser events, and he fears Hickstead and HOTYS, which were staples of the BBC for so long, could be dropped by Sky. If so, a possible on the cheap return to the BBC?
The FA Cup as a standalone really isn't that valuable now, barring the final and any potential upsets, the teams themselves devalue it, with the top clubs frequently fielding a 'second eleven' in the early rounds especially those involved in Europe,
We'll see how this pans out, I'd suggest that BT Sport really need to get the Pay element to boost their offering, which still seems light. As for the FTA element, I'd suggest ITV also need to retain this, they have the flexibility in scheduling to suit the competition.
One thought that has occurred to me, and Brekkie, you may be able to confirm this, if, and I stress if, ITV lost the FA cup, would I be right in thinking that would mean ITV had no domestic football rights for England? Another reason for ITV to bid, having covered some form of domestic English football for so long.
I guess so, but I don't think it would be too great a cause for concern as long as they retain the Champions League and to a lesser extent, the Europa League. They've got English teams in action most weeks with those events.
For a long time ITV just had the football league/league cup highlights and the Champions League, in terms of commercially meaningful domestic rights, they didn't really have any then
Coverage has finished on BBC1 (Total Wipeout on air at 4.25) and it appears there's no prospect of network coverage for the rest of the day, despite it being the semi-finals and a very tasty match between Murray and Tsonga scheduled. It's not even persistent rain, it's showers which will blow over so it's a very disappointing decision. The sun is out with me 50 miles west of London and has been for the past couple of hours after some very heavy rain earlier.