TT
Eurovision Song Contest 2017 Analysis
Here are all the 26 finalists, in the order they will perform tomorrow night:
Israel, Poland, Belarus, Austria, Armenia, The Netherlands, Moldova, Hungary, Italy, Denmark, Portugal, Azerbaijan, Croatia, Australia, Greece, Spain, Norway, United Kingdom, Cyprus, Romania, Germany, Ukraine, Belgium, Sweden, Bulgaria, France.
Now for the 16 countries which failed to reach the final, but will still vote tomorrow night:
OUT: Albania, Czech Republic, Estonia, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Finland, Georgia, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Montenegro, San Marino, Serbia, Slovenia, Switzerland.
Now let's look at some country groups:
Baltic States (Ex USSR)
OUT: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.
Benelux
IN: Belgium, The Netherlands. (Luxembourg didn't enter yet again).
Nordic area
IN: Denmark, Norway, Sweden. OUT: Finland, Iceland.
Greece and Cyprus
IN: Cyprus, Greece.
Former Yugoslavia
IN: Croatia. OUT: F.Y.R. Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia. (Bosnia & Herzegovina didn't enter this year).
Founding Seven
By this I mean the seven countries which appeared in the very first Eurovision Song Contest in Lugano in 1956:
IN: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands. OUT: Switzerland. (Luxembourg didn't enter yet again).
And Finally
Tomorrow evening's Grand Final certainly looks set to be a spectacular one, and I'm really looking forward to it. Most of the countries I wanted to qualify are in, but some of the countries I least wanted (Armenia, Moldova, Norway and Romania) have slipped through against my wishes. I still think Finland and Slovenia deserved the places Armenia and Moldova took on Tuesday evening, and that Estonia and Ireland deserved the places Romania and Norway took last night.
A more detailed analysis is available here:
http://nemesis-nick.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/eurovision-song-contest-2017-analysis.html
Here are all the 26 finalists, in the order they will perform tomorrow night:
Israel, Poland, Belarus, Austria, Armenia, The Netherlands, Moldova, Hungary, Italy, Denmark, Portugal, Azerbaijan, Croatia, Australia, Greece, Spain, Norway, United Kingdom, Cyprus, Romania, Germany, Ukraine, Belgium, Sweden, Bulgaria, France.
Now for the 16 countries which failed to reach the final, but will still vote tomorrow night:
OUT: Albania, Czech Republic, Estonia, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Finland, Georgia, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Montenegro, San Marino, Serbia, Slovenia, Switzerland.
Now let's look at some country groups:
Baltic States (Ex USSR)
OUT: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.
Benelux
IN: Belgium, The Netherlands. (Luxembourg didn't enter yet again).
Nordic area
IN: Denmark, Norway, Sweden. OUT: Finland, Iceland.
Greece and Cyprus
IN: Cyprus, Greece.
Former Yugoslavia
IN: Croatia. OUT: F.Y.R. Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia. (Bosnia & Herzegovina didn't enter this year).
Founding Seven
By this I mean the seven countries which appeared in the very first Eurovision Song Contest in Lugano in 1956:
IN: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands. OUT: Switzerland. (Luxembourg didn't enter yet again).
And Finally
Tomorrow evening's Grand Final certainly looks set to be a spectacular one, and I'm really looking forward to it. Most of the countries I wanted to qualify are in, but some of the countries I least wanted (Armenia, Moldova, Norway and Romania) have slipped through against my wishes. I still think Finland and Slovenia deserved the places Armenia and Moldova took on Tuesday evening, and that Estonia and Ireland deserved the places Romania and Norway took last night.
A more detailed analysis is available here:
http://nemesis-nick.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/eurovision-song-contest-2017-analysis.html
BH
BillyH
Founding member
It's another myth that "we always come last" - that's only happened three times in the entire history of the contest, hasn't it? Two of them stick in the general public's mind as Jemini was the famous 0 point result, and Andy Abraham's result directly led to Wogan quitting. Then Josh a couple years later, but we'd had Jade in fifth in between.
Admittedly we've been close to last for most of the last fifteen years though.
Admittedly we've been close to last for most of the last fifteen years though.
FC
I find it quite annoying that people often skip over Jade Ewen's year when discussing how badly the UK does at Eurovision. That was a strong song, with real credibility in the form of Andrew Lloyd Webber, simple but effective staging, commitment to pre-publicity around Europe, and they got a respectable 5th (I think it was actually 3rd in audience votes alone - the judges dragged it down). It proved that we can be successful if it's done right.
It's another myth that "we always come last" - that's only happened three times in the entire history of the contest, hasn't it? Two of them stick in the general public's mind as Jemini was the famous 0 point result, and Andy Abraham's result directly led to Wogan quitting. Then Josh a couple years later, but we'd had Jade in fifth in between.
Admittedly we've been close to last for most of the last fifteen years though.
Admittedly we've been close to last for most of the last fifteen years though.
I find it quite annoying that people often skip over Jade Ewen's year when discussing how badly the UK does at Eurovision. That was a strong song, with real credibility in the form of Andrew Lloyd Webber, simple but effective staging, commitment to pre-publicity around Europe, and they got a respectable 5th (I think it was actually 3rd in audience votes alone - the judges dragged it down). It proved that we can be successful if it's done right.
GO
I find it quite annoying that people often skip over Jade Ewen's year when discussing how badly the UK does at Eurovision. That was a strong song, with real credibility in the form of Andrew Lloyd Webber, simple but effective staging, commitment to pre-publicity around Europe, and they got a respectable 5th (I think it was actually 3rd in audience votes alone - the judges dragged it down). It proved that we can be successful if it's done right.
It was actually the other way round. We were third with the juries, tenth in the televote.
It's another myth that "we always come last" - that's only happened three times in the entire history of the contest, hasn't it? Two of them stick in the general public's mind as Jemini was the famous 0 point result, and Andy Abraham's result directly led to Wogan quitting. Then Josh a couple years later, but we'd had Jade in fifth in between.
Admittedly we've been close to last for most of the last fifteen years though.
Admittedly we've been close to last for most of the last fifteen years though.
I find it quite annoying that people often skip over Jade Ewen's year when discussing how badly the UK does at Eurovision. That was a strong song, with real credibility in the form of Andrew Lloyd Webber, simple but effective staging, commitment to pre-publicity around Europe, and they got a respectable 5th (I think it was actually 3rd in audience votes alone - the judges dragged it down). It proved that we can be successful if it's done right.
It was actually the other way round. We were third with the juries, tenth in the televote.
RD
2016 - Joe & Jake - 81
2015 - Electro Velvet - 114
2014 - Molly - 23
2013 - Bonnie Tyler - 93
2012 - Engelbert Humperdinck - 60
2011 - Blue - 16
2010 - Josh Dubovie - 179
2009 - Jade Ewen - 27
You only have to look at the UK chart positions of the songs we send in order to tell you if we're being robbed or not.
2016 - Joe & Jake - 81
2015 - Electro Velvet - 114
2014 - Molly - 23
2013 - Bonnie Tyler - 93
2012 - Engelbert Humperdinck - 60
2011 - Blue - 16
2010 - Josh Dubovie - 179
2009 - Jade Ewen - 27
SD
So the only remote robbery there is Molly. This one's not difficult to explain either - it was on plumb last (which is bad luck) and was too low for the singer to easily handle live even though she wrote it herself (which is bad planning).
I honestly think this is the first BBC entry since at least Blue, and maybe Jade, that would be nailed-on to make it through a semi-final. Throw in a near-perfect spot in the running order, and I really do think top half is probable, though top-5 is unlikely.
Just to give you an idea of how high expectations aren't, as recently as last week a friend got 11/2 on a top-10 finish, which he took after seeing rehearsal footage. That's now even money with some bookmakers but has drifted to 13/8 with one other as I type.
I honestly think this is the first BBC entry since at least Blue, and maybe Jade, that would be nailed-on to make it through a semi-final. Throw in a near-perfect spot in the running order, and I really do think top half is probable, though top-5 is unlikely.
Just to give you an idea of how high expectations aren't, as recently as last week a friend got 11/2 on a top-10 finish, which he took after seeing rehearsal footage. That's now even money with some bookmakers but has drifted to 13/8 with one other as I type.
SD
I'm told that the old "delay the inevitable as long as possible based on what the jury vote says" voting order algorithm is no longer in use with the new voting system. Last year actually showed that, because Australia won the jury vote but their top scores were loaded at the start of the announcements - under the old algorithm they'd have been backloaded instead.
Now that the televote points get announced in one batch at the end, they trust that they don't need an algorithm to hide a spoiler from the general public (whilst providing a major one to the clued-up insiders - I made money on both recent Swedish victories based on the voting order putting the other Scandinavian countries suspiciously late).
Have we not had the voting order released yet?
I'm told that the old "delay the inevitable as long as possible based on what the jury vote says" voting order algorithm is no longer in use with the new voting system. Last year actually showed that, because Australia won the jury vote but their top scores were loaded at the start of the announcements - under the old algorithm they'd have been backloaded instead.
Now that the televote points get announced in one batch at the end, they trust that they don't need an algorithm to hide a spoiler from the general public (whilst providing a major one to the clued-up insiders - I made money on both recent Swedish victories based on the voting order putting the other Scandinavian countries suspiciously late).