Not just Brexit, the General election polls where crap and dont forget.... that nate block was the guy behide panorama prediction and he got it badly wrong....
Nate Silver? He's been uncannily accurate with his polling predictions over the years, he got the 2012 US General Election spot on when no one else did
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only a fool would believe its over, hence the reason the tape was leaked.
I'm not sure I get your logic there. However because of the tape it does seem as though it is over - you might be sceptical about the polls falling through the floor but the sheer number of people and organisations distancing themselves from Trump over the last week and the ceasing of Republican Party campaigning for him later week suggests that they know its over.
The story now isn't really if he'll lose, it's how much by and how it affects 'down ticket' Republicans
Last edited by Inspector Sands on 12 October 2016 9:43pm - 2 times in total
The story now isn't really if he'll lose, it's how much by and how it affects 'down ticket' Republicans
Agreed. Trump will not win. It's over. He's now turned on the GOP and will soon start going on about the result being "rigged" again - he knows it's slipping away. The national polls are meaningless, the election is won in swing states due to the electoral college.
Trump is polling well behind where Romney was with core demographics like white, college-educated self-identifying Republicans. He has a poor ground game, and whilst he attracts plenty of people to his events, Trump is now preaching wholly to his base supporters - and there's simply not enough of them.
I'd highly recommend the NPR Politics podcast for reasoned discussion on the Presidential Election.
They say Pence in 2020. As a bridge between Trump and the normal.
Yes, it's been quite obvious that he's been looking ahead to 2020.
Ted Cruz it seemed started his 2020 campaign at the Republican Party Convention by not endorsing Trump. The feeling was that when it all went wrong for Trump he would come out looking good. However that's all changed and somehow now he's one of the few senior republicans supporting him now!
Not just Brexit, the General election polls where crap and dont forget.... that nate block was the guy behide panorama prediction and he got it badly wrong....
Nate Silver? He's been uncannily accurate with his polling predictions over the years, he got the 2012 US General Election spot on when no one else did
That was then, this is now and he also GOT who would win the Rep primary will wrong, he admitted he dislike trump and written him off, that back fired on him. The problem is he goes by norms etc, alas were in an uncharted waters here, just like 2015 UK and Brexit.
only a fool would believe its over, hence the reason the tape was leaked.
I'm not sure I get your logic there. However because of the tape it does seem as though it is over - you might be sceptical about the polls falling through the floor but the sheer number of people and organisations distancing themselves from Trump over the last week and the ceasing of Republican Party campaigning for him later week suggests that they know its over.
The story now isn't really if he'll lose, it's how much by and how it affects 'down ticket' Republicans
What I meant was the rep party who leaked that tape wanted to finish him off, I think your a fool to believe its all over now..... Look at Nigal on Brexit night.
Until its over its NEVER over., that the one mistake you must never forget.
Talking about Mike Pence, the vice president debate last week was interesting in TV terms.
The VP debates don't usually matter that much and it seems the Clinton camp realised this and did something very clever. Kaine came out of it badly, he was seen to have lost the debate. However the next day this ad came out:
https://youtu.be/qZOWItkanDs
The thinking is that Kaine had a list of things to ask so that the answers could be used in that ad. The speed at which it was produced would suggest that it was planned in advance and ready just to add the debate clips in once it happened. Clever stuff
Last edited by Inspector Sands on 12 October 2016 10:10pm
Until its over its NEVER over., that the one mistake you must never forget.
I really can't see what sort of revelation would suddenly come out to make the situation change. The fact that his own party has abandoned him means he's on a downward spiral, they know it's over and it is
It's different to Brexit, an American presidental election has a precedent so the modelling and polling is well established. Also the various Leave campaigns didn't have a massive scandal to dig their way out of, let alone several in a row.
Last edited by Inspector Sands on 12 October 2016 10:21pm
Until its over its NEVER over., that the one mistake you must never forget.
I really can't see what sort of revelation would suddenly come out to make the situation change. The fact that his own party has abandoned him means he's on a downward spiral, they know it's over and it is
Nothing is a forgone conclusion, and it bad to every think that. Also his party never liked him so that by the by. If come election day and she wins then that fine, its finished. The media not going to let this go for another 20 odd days there money to be made, and thus there kept Trump coming on etc.
Trump does not lose, even if he loses. Of course he will have failed on the election, but now the whole world knows his name.
Yes but the big problem is that there's a heck of a lot of his dirty washing out there that wouldn't have been had he not run for president. He was pretty famous before, now he's notorious!
It'll be very interesting to see what legal proceedings are brought against him after the election. Theres also the rumoured Trump branded right-wing media outlet, that too will be very interesting if it happens