I think with the silence surrounding any BBC ident this Christmas for both BBC1 and BBC2, there is a strong chance that both channels will be repeating Christmas idents. Last year BBC2 showed the 1998 ident alongside 2011's so perhaps they will just show a remastered version of the 1998 BBC2 Christmas Ident this year. And, BBC1 could show their 1998 ones too!
You've made a fair point about possible ident recycling this Christmas. However, I personally think that the lack of information about any new festive BBC idents is probably because:-
(a) It's only just turned November
(b) Those "in the know" will be keeping it a secret because they have been told to.
I wasn't aware that BBC2's 1998 one was aired last Christmas. Presumably that was during the Afternoon Classics strand?
I honestly think BBC1 will have something new for us this year. They've only ever recycled their Christmas idents on 2 occasions in 2003 (the snowflake kids from 2002) and 2007 (the snowball ident from the previous year).
I'd rather not know yet anyway. We'll only have to wait 4 weeks until the first Christmas trails start airing and the endboards on those will be likely to give us a clue about the ident.